Bet you a million to a bit of dirt.
Heck, you probably don't need a whole lot of time to ponder such a transparent phrase...
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Time's a-wastin', so here's the definition, courtesy of Passing English of the Victorian Era: A Dictionary of Heterodox English, Slang, and Phrase by J. Redding Ware (1909):
Bet you a million to a bit of dirt (Sporting, 19th cent.). The thing is so sure that there can be no uncertainty. The betting man's Ultima Thule of confidence.
(For those of you, who like me, are thinking Ultima what? I looked it up. Dictionary.com explains ultima Thule is Latin for "the highest degree obtainable." You're welcome!)


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